RBI leaves door open for more tightening: Key highlights of RBI policy statement
Feb 8, 2023
The Reserve Bank of India hiked its key repo rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday but left the door open for more tightening, saying core inflation remained high.
“The stickiness of core or underlying inflation is a matter of concern. We need to see a decisive moderation in inflation. We have to remain unwavering in our commitment to bring down CPI headline inflation," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, while announcing the committee’s decision.
The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, with four out of six members voting in favour of that position.
Das said that the inflation-adjusted, real interest rate remains below the pre-pandemic levels and liquidity remains surplus, even though it is lower than during the pandemic.
Das added that the Indian economy looks resilient even though considerable uncertainties remain on global commodity prices. The RBI has projected a growth rate of 6.4% for FY24.
"The global economic outlook does not look as grim now as it did a few months ago. Growth prospects in major economies have improved, while inflation is on a descent though still remains well-above target in major economies. The situation remains fluid and uncertain,” Das said.
Here are the highlights of the statement:
Global economy: Outlook has improved in recent months, despite the persistence of geopolitical hostilities and the impact of monetary policy tightening by central banks across the world. Nonetheless, global growth is expected to decelerate during 2023. Inflation is exhibiting some softening from elevated levels, prompting central banks to moderate the size and pace of rate actions. However, central banks are reiterating their commitment to bring down inflation close to their targets. Bond yields remain volatile. The US dollar has come off its recent peak, and equity markets have moved higher since the last MPC meeting.
Economic activity has remained strong in Q3 and Q4:2022-23
Rabi acreage exceeded last year’s area by 3.3 per cent as on February 3, 2023. Industrial production expanded by 7.1 per cent in November, after contracting by 4.2 per cent in October. Port freight traffic, e-way bills and toll collections were buoyant in December. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing as well as services remained in expansion in January, despite some moderation compared to the previous month.
Domestic demand has been sustained by strong discretionary spending
Urban demand exhibited resilience as reflected in healthy passenger vehicle sales and domestic air passenger traffic. Rural demand is improving. Investment activity is gradually gaining ground. Non-oil non-gold imports expanded in December. Merchandise exports, on the other hand, contracted in December on weak global demand.
CPI headline inflation moderated to 5.7 per cent (y-o-y) in December 2022 – after easing to 5.9 per cent in November – on the back of double digit deflation in vegetable prices.
On the other hand, inflationary pressures accentuated across cereals, protein-based food items and spices. Fuel inflation edged up primarily from an uptick in kerosene prices. Core CPI (i.e., CPI excluding food and fuel) inflation rose to 6.1 per cent in December due to sustained price pressures in health, education and personal care and effects.
Inflation outlook: Assuming an average crude oil price (Indian basket) of US$ 95 per barrel, inflation is projected at 6.5 per cent in 2022-23, with Q4 at 5.7 per cent. On the assumption of a normal monsoon, CPI inflation is projected at 5.3 per cent for 2023-24, with Q1 at 5.0 per cent, Q2 at 5.4 per cent, Q3 at 5.4 per cent and Q4 at 5.6 per cent.
Why is RBI wary about inflation?
According to RBI, it was driven by strong deflation in vegetables, which may dissipate with the summer season uptick. Headline inflation excluding vegetables has been rising well above the upper tolerance band and may remain elevated, especially with high core inflation pressures.
Inflation, therefore, remains a major risk to the outlook.
"While the policy repo rate increases undertaken since May 2022 are working their way through the system, it is imperative to remain alert on inflation so as to ensure that it remains within the tolerance band and progressively aligns with the target. On balance, the MPC is of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, break core inflation persistence and thereby strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Accordingly, the MPC decided to increase the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.50 per cent. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth," said the RBI.
GDP outlook: GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.4 per cent with Q1 at 7.8 per cent, Q2 at 6.2 per cent, Q3 at 6.0 per cent and Q4 at 5.8 per cent, and risks broadly balanced
Government securities market: It has now been decided to restore market hours for the Government Securities market to the pre-pandemic timing of 9 am to 5 pm. RBI also proposed to permit lending and borrowing of G-secs. This will provide investors with an avenue to deploy their idle securities, enhance portfolio returns and facilitate wider participation. This measure will also add depth and liquidity to the G-sec market; aid efficient price discovery; and work towards a smooth completion of the market borrowing programme of the centre and states.
Indian rupee: The Indian Rupee has remained one of the least volatile currencies among its Asian peers in calendar year 2022 and continues to be so this year also. Similarly, the depreciation and the volatility of the Indian rupee during the current phase of multiple shocks is far lower than during the global financial crisis and the taper tantrum.
Current account deficit: The current account deficit (CAD) for the first half of 2022-23 stood at 3.3 per cent of GDP. The situation has shown improvement in Q3:2022-23 as imports moderated in the wake of lower commodity prices, resulting in narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit.
Services exports rose by 24.9 per cent (y-o-y) in Q3:2022-23, driven by software, business and travel services. Global software and IT services spending is expected to remain strong in 2023.
Remittance growth for India in H1 of 2022-23 was around 26 per cent – more than twice the World Bank’s projection for the year. This is likely to remain robust owing to better growth prospects of the Gulf countries. The net balance under services and remittances are expected to remain in large surplus, partly offsetting the trade deficit. The CAD is expected to moderate in H2:2022-23 and remain eminently manageable.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) flows remain strong at $22.3 billion during April-December 2022 (US$ 24.8 billion in the corresponding period last year). Foreign portfolio flows have shown signs of improvement with positive flows of US$ 8.5 billion during July to February 6, led by equity flows (foreign portfolio flows are, however, negative during the financial year so far).
Penal charges on loans: Currently Regulated Entities (REs) are required to have a policy for levy of penal interest on advances. The REs, however, follow divergent practices on levying of such charges. In certain cases, these charges are founded to be excessive. To further enhance transparency, reasonableness and consumer protection, draft guidelines on levy of penal charges will be issued to obtain comments from stakeholders.
Expansion of Trade Receivables Discounting System : For the benefit of MSMEs, the Reserve Bank had introduced a framework in 2014 to facilitate financing of their trade receivables through Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS). It is now proposed to expand the scope of TReDs by (i) providing insurance facility for invoice financing; (ii) permitting all entities/institutions undertaking factoring business to participate as financiers in TReDS; and (iii) permitting rediscounting of invoices (that is, developing a secondary market in TReDS). These measures are expected to improve the cash flows of the MSME.
Extending UPI for Inbound Travellers to India: It is now proposed to permit all inbound travellers to India to use UPI for their merchant payments (P2M) while they are in the country. To begin with, this facility will be extended to travellers from G-20 countries arriving at select international airports.
QR Code based Coin Vending Machine - Pilot project: The Reserve Bank of India will launch a pilot project on QR Code based Coin Vending Machine (QCVM) in 12 cities. These vending machines will dispense coins against debit to the customer’s account using UPI instead of physical tendering of banknotes. This will enhance the ease of accessibility to coins. Based on the learnings from the pilot, guidelines will be issued to banks to promote distribution of coins using these machines.
[The Times of India]